IgA Nephropathy Progression Calculator

Krzysztof Kiryluk, MD, MS and David A. Fasel

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This risk score is based on the analysis of 619 biopsy-diagnosed Chinese patients with IgA nephropathy followed for an average of 41.3 months from the time of diagnosis. The calculator uses four baseline clinical variables assessed at the time of biopsy to predict the risk of progression to end stage kidney disease.

To calculate the risk of disease progression, enter the clinical values:

Glomerular Filtration Rate:	ml/min/1.73m2
Hemoglobin:	g/dL
Serum Albumin:	g/dL
Systolic Blood Pressure:	mm Hg

 

IgA Nephropathy
Progression Risk:

##
High/Avg/Low Risk

These values indicate high/med/low risk of renal disease progression. The probability of requiring dialysis or kidney transplantation at 5 years is ##% and at 10 years is ##%.

Enter values on the left to determine risk of progression to end stage kidney disease.

Please enter values within the ranges given above.

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Risk Score Equation:

Risk Score = 6.932 - (0.039 × eGFR) - (0.230 × Hb) - (0.762 × Alb) + (0.016 × SBP)

eGFR = estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate [ml/min/1.73m]
Hb = Hemoglobin [g/dL]
Alb = Serum Albumin [g/dL]
SBP = Systolic Blood Pressure [mmHg]

Interpretation:

Risk Group	Risk Score	Explanation
Low	< -0.887	First tertile of the risk score distribution. IgA nephropathy patients in this risk group may require dialysis or kidney transplantation within 20.5 years of diagnosis on average.
Average	-0.887 to 0.993	Second tertile of the risk score distribution. IgA nephropathy patients in this risk group may require dialysis or kidney transplantation within 12.3 years of diagnosis on average.
High	> 0.993	Third tertile of the risk score distribution. IgA nephropathy patients in this risk group may require dialysis or kidney transplantation within 5.4 years of diagnosis on average.

References:

1. Jingyuan Xie, Krzysztof Kiryluk, Weiming Wang, Zhaohui Wang, Pingyan Shen, Hong Ren, Xiaoxia Pan, Shanmai Guo, Xiaonong Chen, Wen Zhang, Xiao Li,  Hao Shi, Yifu Li, Ali G. Gharavi, and Nan Chen: Predicting Progression of IgA Nephropathy: New Clinical Progression Risk Score. PLoS One 2012;7(6):e38904

Disclaimer:

This risk score has been derived based on a cohort of Chinese patients with IgA nephropathy and has not yet been validated in other ethic groups. This tool can be used for individual risk prediction; however, it does not imply medical advice and it should not be used to guide clinical management until further validation studies confirm its clinical usefulness.

Last updated 8/2012